Track record / every signal since Jan 21, 2026 Illustrative win rates · live volume · methodology on this page

Every signal we fire gets scored. This is the tape.

The engine flags ~64 flow signals a trading day. Each one is measured against the same yardstick from the moment it prints — winners, losers, and the ones still working. Nothing gets deleted, nothing gets a do-over.

68.3%
of completed signals hit +30% before −50%
50%55%60%65%70%75%
95% range 67.2 – 69.5 · 6,347 completed signals · re-run history with different luck and the true rate lands in this band 95 times out of 100
Losers included Unlagged — scored from the alerted fill Contract prices, not member returns
CALLS BOUGHTn=2,980
71.0%
PUTS BOUGHTn=2,347
63.9%
All 6,347 completed signalseach square ≈ 63
Hit the +30% target first68.3%n=4,335
Went green, fell short20.5%n=1,301
Never traded green11.2%n=711
Signals tracked
8,053
since Jan 21, 2026
Tickers covered
1,131
single names + ETFs
Premium followed
$9.5B
institutional dollars
Signals per day
~64
125 trading days
Still maturing
1,706
join the record at expiry — no partial credit
What happens next

The life of a signal.

A win rate says whether the flow is real. These three panels say what to do with it — how far signals run, how fast, and why you take profits.

Nearly every signal goes green. The question is how far.

Best price reached vs the alerted fill · all 6,347 completed
Never traded green
11%
Peaked under +30%
21%
Target zone +30–100%
36%
Doubled (×2–×3)
22%
Tripled or more
10%
32% of all signals at least doubled at their peak.

Winners don't keep you waiting.

Time from alert to the +30% target · 4,335 winners
41% 67% 84% day 1day 3day 7day 10
Median: 2 days to target. The edge is front-loaded — fresh signals are the trade; week-old ones rarely wake up.

Ride the move. Don't marry it.

Flow calls the entry — the exit is yours
Median peak, winning signals+64%
Still green if held to expiry47%
Expired worthless12%
Breakeven rate for +30 / −5062.5%
Peak is not a return — it marks how far the move ran, not what anyone banked. The pay is in the runs past +30% and in not marrying losers.
Slice the record

Find your edge.

Every pattern and every cut, against the same 68.3% baseline — the dashed line in every chart. What over-performs here is what you tune your alerts for in the terminal.

#PatternWin rate · +30% before −50%Med. peakSpeed
01 Calls bought · top-conviction tiern=1,238
78.9%+82%1d
02 Puts sold · single namesn=712
76.0%+58%2d
03 Repeated hits — same strike bought again within 48hn=531
73.8%+71%2d
04 Earnings runway > 2 weeksn=1,829
71.4%+55%3d
SPY directional — scored the same, listed apart in the member terminal — never in this headline.
baseline 68.3% · whisker = 95% range · completed signals only

Cut it yourself.

Win rate by the dimensions you can filter on · amber n = smallest samples
Calls bought (bullish)
71.0%n=2,980
Puts sold (bullish)
72.6%n=760
Puts bought (bearish)
63.9%n=2,347
Calls sold (bearish)
64.6%n=260
The edge leans bullish. Institutions selling puts win 72.6%; outright bearish put-buys sit at 63.9%. If you lean on bearish alerts, demand extra confluence.
$250K – 500K
67.4%n=2,480
$500K – 1M
68.8%n=2,270
$1M – 5M
69.4%n=1,390
$5M+
66.7%n=207
No bucket falls out of bed — the patterns carry the edge, not the check size. Don't over-filter on premium alone.
≤ 1 week
62.5%n=1,020
1 – 4 weeks
67.5%n=2,860
1 – 3 months
71.2%n=1,860
3+ months
72.9%n=607
More runway, more wins — the rate steps up with time to expiry. Weeklies are playable but carry the least margin for error.

Every month on the record.

Win rate by signal month · completed signals only, no window shopping
68.3
66
67
70
69
68
66
64
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun29% open
Jul82% open
Weakest full month: 66.0%. Hatched months are still mostly on the clock — their rates settle as contracts mature, and they join the headline only at expiry.

The paper trail.

Largest completed runs on record · peak vs the alerted fill · peak ≠ banked return
QXOCall
+412%
structured multi-leg · Jun 24
OKLOCall
+388%
top-conviction tier · May 12
CVNACall
+344%
repeated hits · Jun 03
WULFPut
+310%
unusual OI build · Apr 21
+31 more prints past +300% on the full record — the tail is long
The fine print, up front

How we measure.

One yardstick, applied to everything. If you can't audit it, it isn't a track record.

The win definition

A signal wins if its contract trades +30% above the alerted fill before it trades −50% below it — intraday, first touch decides. Peak is the best price reached along the way; it is labeled peak and is never presented as a return.

When a signal is scored

At contract expiry. Until then it sits in the 1,706-signal “maturing” bucket — visible, counted, and out of every published rate. No partial credit, no early bragging. That's why recent months read low: most of their contracts are still alive.

What's excluded, and why

  • Index products (SPY) are scored identically but listed apart — different mechanics, never in the headline number.
  • Cuts below a minimum sample size show their n in amber and are never ranked.
  • Signals without a verifiable fill price are dropped, and the drop is counted.

What this is not

A record of contract prices, not member returns — nobody's account is being tracked, and no fills are assumed better than the alerted price. Not a model portfolio, not investment advice, not a solicitation. Educational research on single-name equity and ETF options flow.

Volume & counts from the live tracker through Jul 21, 2026 · win rates illustrative pending the final stat sheet · educational research only

Verify it yourself.

The full track record lives in the terminal — every signal, graded as it resolves, filterable by every cut on this page. Set the cuts that out-earn the baseline and let the feed come to you.

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